Antitrust & Foreign Investment Legal Outlook 2025

Publication|

10 December 2024

All change ahead

Looking ahead to 2025, regulators’ approach to competition law is expected to see considerable shifts. On a tide of concern for national and economic security – and following a year with considerable political change – expect government pressure to prioritise growth, investment and innovation, to shape how regulators review transactions and enforce antitrust rules.

While dealmakers may see increasing obligations and longer timeframes in cases with substantive issues, regulators may be more amenable to dialogue with parties and accepting alternative remedies, in the interests of “getting the deal through”.

Concerns about the cost-of-living will see consumer law looking to fill gaps in antitrust enforcement this year. Cross-border coordination is likely as enforcers tackle Gen AI and digital markets to fill the perceived gaps left by traditional antitrust rules and digital regulations, while advanced investigative tools and increased penalties mean greater risk for companies.

Testimonial

"2025 is shaping up to be a year of seismic shifts in how regulators approach competition policy, as political changes and concern over national and economic priorities dominate. Processes and enforcement rooted in neoliberal thinking are under pressure. This might create windows of opportunity for projects that support competitiveness, growth or help addressing the other challenges that economies are facing."

Bernd Meyring

Global Head of Antitrust and Foreign Investment

01
Protectionism, economic growth and innovation
02
Catching the right merger deals
03
Getting the deal through
04
Rigorous enforcement of the Foreign Subsidies Regulation and investment screening rules
05
Antitrust conduct under the (upgraded) microscope
06
Gen AI and tech regulation
07
Private enforcement

Protectionism, economic growth and innovation

Global geopolitical changes will prompt a fresh outlook on merger control and antitrust rules this year. An increased focus on national security and economic growth – alongside the “changing of the guard” in the EU, UK and US – is anticipated to result in a global shift towards more ‘traditional’ (but protectionist) merger enforcement.

Catching the right merger deals

Despite the pivotal overturn of the Illumina decision, the EC has been clear that below-turnover threshold deals will not escape scrutiny. Front-of-mind are mergers and partnerships in the AI-space and pharma deals. EU Member States are fast developing their own call-in powers and other regimes are also building in this flexibility.

Getting the deal through

Behavioural remedies have been slowly increasing this year and look likely to continue so (particularly in the UK). Despite longer timelines and increases in deal mortality in some jurisdictions, we may see increased pragmatism from other authorities into 2025, in response to wider political pressure.

Rigorous enforcement of the Foreign Subsidies Regulation and investment screening rules

The EC is keen to ramp up investigations under the FSR in 2025, in pursuit of a “level playing field” for EU companies. Important changes are expected in investment screening this year, including to meet the challenges of new technologies and outbound investment.

Antitrust conduct under the (upgraded) microscope

Political changes may result in a shift of antitrust priorities in some jurisdictions in 2025. Consumer sectors, cartel conduct with impact on public funds and restrictive HR practices are however, likely to remain a constant. And as authorities invest in improved technology, effective compliance policies – particularly in relation to document retention practices – is more important than ever.

Gen AI and tech regulation

Gen AI is fast becoming the largest new preoccupation of countless competition authorities, while authorities are scaling up their expertise in relation to information exchange concerns with AI and algorithms.

And with a new digital regime in the UK, increasing enforcement under the DMA and other ex ante regulation (not to mention landmark cases under traditional antitrust and dominance rules), tech companies will remain a key target in 2025 – including under the new US administration.

Private enforcement

2025 looks set to continue the current uptick in private enforcement. The growth of opt-out collective action regimes has globalised mass-scale litigation risk for companies beyond the US, where such actions are well-established.